CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-07-21T15:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-21T15:12Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47725/-1
CME Note: [Preliminary] The arrival of this CME was not clearly detected at L1. This CME is visible to the northeast in STEREO A COR2 imagery, and is faint but may be seen to the northwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. The source may be related to an eruption/brightening from Active Region 14493 (N10W05) starting around 2026-07-21T12:00Z seen in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304, GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304, and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 imagery. There is a coronal hole north and south of this eruption site which may account for deflection from the on-disk source location.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-24T01:00Z (-9.0h, +9.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 900
Longitude (deg): 11W
Latitude (deg): 34N
Half-angular width (deg): 25

Notes: Glancing impact and low confidence due to limited imagery and SOHO C3 boon limiting visibility. CME clearest on St A cor2.  
Space weather advisor: Kirk Waite

Lead Time: 33.50 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-07-22T15:30Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy